Counterfactual Protocol
po, cici
A decentralized simulation for decision making, using liquidity provisioning and arbitration. This project will at its core develop new protocols for defining counterfactual scenarios, which by doing so will take a critical look at policy creation, expertise, management, and habitants - and existing gaps and inefficiencies in them, through the lens of market dynamics. This project will extend from my initial development of this github repo
What is the existing target protocol you are hoping to improve or enhance? Eg: hand-washing, traffic system, connector standards, carbon trading.
A counterfactual simulation protocol involves structured methods and rules for creating and analyzing âwhat-ifâ scenarios. These protocols are crucial in many fields such as economics, risk management, policy making, AI and machine learning. They help in understanding potential outcomes by simulating different conditions or decisions that havenât actually occurred, but could potentially occur.
What is the core idea or insight about potential improvement you want to pursue?
Counterfactual explanation in AI would be one of the core insights to improve in this sense, which extends deeper into other areas such as water management models and stochastic generators! These are used to explain model decisions by altering input data points and observing how the changes affect the output. It helps in understanding what could be changed in the input data to achieve a desired prediction, thus providing insights into the modelâs behavior. In areas such as water management, an improvement for us to pursue is to for example, define the future failure events or parameters and then run simulations backwards to define what inputs were necessary to create those failure events.
Or also, in the context of education, UNESCO might use counterfactual simulations to analyze the potential impacts of different educational policies or initiatives.
The key insight about potential improvements stems from the novel mechanics of liquidity provisioning as a means of simulation, while also noting the limitations for public access and public interaction with these counterfactual scenarios that thus create policies that directly affect others - so transparency is also a crucial component to create bridges between gaps.
What is your discovery methodology for investigating the current state of the target protocol? Eg: field observation, expert interviews, historical data analysis, failure event analysis
A hybrid framework between SDK development, field observation and collaboration with water management and climate model experts including interviews, along with ethnographic methods and analysis.
In what form will you prototype your improvement idea? Eg: Code, reference design implementation, draft proposal shared with experts for feedback, A/B test of ideas with a test audience, prototype hardware, etc.
Code, functional data frameworks, draft proposals, and prototyping
How will you field-test your improvement idea? Eg: run a restricted pilot at an event, simulation, workshop, etc.
Simulation of course, as well as workshop collaborative which will look at various counterfactual protocol histories alongside each other. Along with also various implementations into various topics.
Who will be able to judge the quality of your output? Ideally name a few suitable judges.
Due to how interdisciplinary this project is, some judges from economics, environmental science, policy management, technology, and cultural heritage would be suitable - such as members of the IJC or EPA, or educational institutes that are focused on cultural/environmental data and its usage in simulations towards policy making.
How will you publish and evangelize your improvement idea? Eg: Submit proposal to a standards body, publish open-source code, produce and release a software development kit etc.
Publish open source code repository along with SDK and working simulation generator, along with published model specs for simulations and published article written about project and subject in depth.
What is the success vision for your idea?
The success would be a collaborative dissection of the concept of counterfactual along with addressing critically aspects of the current digital environment that might make a reorganization of that kind of protocol difficult to address, as currently the gaps in between expertise, policy makers, and habitants is quite large and seemingly becoming larger gaps perpetually after every âevent.â